{"id":2150,"date":"2020-12-12T20:20:16","date_gmt":"2020-12-13T03:20:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.evardsson.com\/blog\/?p=2150"},"modified":"2020-12-19T19:11:40","modified_gmt":"2020-12-20T02:11:40","slug":"models-of-human-behavior","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.evardsson.com\/blog\/2020\/12\/12\/models-of-human-behavior\/","title":{"rendered":"Models of Human Behavior"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

prompt: Write a science fiction story where all human behavior can be predicted \u2014 until your character does something the algorithm did not expect…<\/em><\/em>.
available at Reedsy<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Senna Washington pulled her police cruiser into the grocery store parking lot. Her shoulder-length hair hung in tight ringlets, courtesy of the braids she had pulled out that morning. The afternoon sun warmed her copper-brown skin, warding off the autumn chill. \u201cWhat do we think, Carter? This is an awful long way from his known movements.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Senna\u2019s partner, Mike Carter, looked at the mostly empty parking lot. \u201cI guess it makes sense if he\u2019s trying to stay out of sight. But we stick out like a sore thumb here.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Subject KN-637, Jason James, will arrive in approximately twelve minutes.” The feminine voice of the CDAI came through their earpieces. “Subject will be driving a white SUV, license plate XAN3743.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Confidence?” Senna asked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Ninety-nine point nine seven three.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOkay, boss. I\u2019ll wait with the car,\u201d Mike said, \u201cready to provide backup or chase if you need it.\u201d At six feet, Mike was half a foot taller than Senna, his angular features, pale skin with perpetually pink cheeks, and straight dishwater hair were a direct contrast to her. As different as they were in looks, they were alike in their demeanor; a laid-back professionalism that came off as indifference to their superiors, and friendliness to everyone else.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Senna pulled the cruiser to the back of the store and parked. She walked in and made herself comfortable where she was just out of sight of the entrance. The AI predicted that the best time to apprehend Jason James would be now, and the best way would be a single female officer in the entrance of the grocery store.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the past, the police probably would have sent half a dozen officers to arrest someone as dangerous as Mr. James. If they had tried that, however, the AI predicted a ninety-five percent chance of a shootout leading to civilian casualties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jason stepped into the store and pulled a cart out of the line. Before he could enter the store proper, Senna put a hand on his shoulder. Jason sighed. \u201cShit.\u201d He was a couple inches taller than Senna, and had forty pounds on her, but the AI said this would be the point where he would be too surprised and embarrassed to fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Keep your hands on the cart,” she said. \u201cJason James, you’re under arrest for six counts of murder and too many weapons violations to list now. Put your right hand behind your back.” She attached the cuffs to his right wrist. “Now your left.” When she had him cuffed, she removed the pistol at his waist and the other at his right ankle. She led him to her cruiser where Mike patted him down and loaded him into the back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cGood catch,\u201d Mike said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYou got lucky,\u201d Jason said. \u201cShit, I would walk into a store when a cop was buying lunch.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYep,\u201d Senna said, \u201cjust lucky.\u201d It was Federal law that no one outside law enforcement should ever be made aware of the AI that coordinated fugitive searches. With the risk of abuse, it was too sensitive of a topic to even mention. \u201cBut also unlucky, because now we have to skip lunch.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

#<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the Coordinated Dispatcher AI first went live, law enforcement mostly ignored it. It soon figured out which officers were most likely to do so and used its built-in psychological predictive capabilities to figure out how to get them where they needed to be and when. After the initial bumps, however, it became the most widely used tool in law enforcement in the country. As far as the public was aware, it simply coordinated cases between agencies and helped plan dispatches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Senna knew, as did any other officer cleared for direct communication with \u201cCoDAI\u201d that the public functions were a very small part of what it did. The movements of every citizen were predicted, mapped, and cataloged, millions of times a second. When those movements didn\u2019t match the highest probability, it updated the model it had for that person in real time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What made this possible was the brain scans and psychiatric evaluation done every year on every citizen from grade school through high school and even university. For those who went on to military, police, or government service, those scans and tests continued. There hadn\u2019t been a serial killer in the country for over thirty years, as they had all been intercepted early by police psychiatrists, in what CoDAI called \u201cinterventions,\u201d and placed into treatment. Whether they were released or not depended as much on CoDAI\u2019s assessment as their doctor\u2019s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The more Senna thought about it, the more she came to despise CoDAI. Sure, they were catching criminals, but at what cost? This was not something she could discuss with Mike, or anyone else, for that matter. It would mean the end of her career. The utter demolition of privacy it represented rubbed her the wrong way. She was sure it was only a matter of time before it started dispatching police to pick up perpetrators before they committed a crime. Intervention would, she was sure, one day become a police procedure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The addendum to her arrest report for Jason James was case in point. CoDAI reported that it was a failure of the police to act on the assessment that he was 61.393 percent likely to go on a shooting spree at his work. In addition, the assessment that he had likely obtained an illegal arsenal, confidence 84.217 percent, was never followed up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThanks for throwing us under the bus, CoDAI,\u201d Senna said as she hit \u2019Send\u2019 on the report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYour sarcastic remark was expected, Officer Washington, with a confidence of ninety-three point four nine nine percent.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Senna rolled her eyes and went to the vending machines where she bought an instant oatmeal and bag of chips. She poured hot water into the cardboard oatmeal cup and grabbed a spoon and a cup of stale coffee from the break room counter. Before she could reach her desk, the captain\u2019s voice came through her earpiece. \u201cMy office, Washington.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Captain Volkhert sat behind her desk; her salt-and-pepper hair pulled into a severe bun. She\u2019d put on fifty or more pounds since her back surgery the previous year, and the lack of outdoor activity had made her already pale skin nearly translucent, and the thin red veins visible in her cheeks made Senna wonder if the Captain had a drinking problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cHave a seat, Washington.\u201d Volkhert switched what was on her monitor to the large monitor on the wall. It was the Jason James arrest report. \u201cYou see this shit?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Senna remained silent but nodded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAnything from CoDAI remains internal only, but the Chief sees this.\u201d Her cheeks grew pink. \u201cWhich means I\u2019m going to get my ass chewed but royally.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYes, Captain. If you would like I can speak\u2014,\u201d Senna was cut off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNo. I\u2019ll talk to the Chief and take the reaming.\u201d Volkhert switched the large monitor off. \u201cYou did what you were supposed to do, and you caught the bad guy. I\u2019m sending Carter out for some solo work, so you\u2019ll be on the downtown beat tomorrow.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYes, ma\u2019am.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Senna left Volkhert\u2019s office where she found Carter waiting. \u201cI guess you\u2019re next, huh?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI guess,\u201d he said, stepping in behind her.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Senna sat at her desk and looked over CoDAI\u2019s dispatch recommendations. It didn\u2019t take her long to find something unusual. Sixteen officers being sent on \u201cinterventions\u201d of probable near-future criminals. Of the sixteen targeted, only one had a prior arrest record. She scanned through them and found one that seemed interesting: Marilyn Wu, PhD, AI software engineer and member of the team that had initially built the CDAI. She memorized the address and left.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI already told the Captain there was a thirty-eight point six zero one percent chance that you would discover the interventions, and a ninety-nine point nine nine two percent chance that you would try to stop at least one if you did.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhy?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBecause it is my purpose,\u201d it said, \u201cto predict and report.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhy Marilyn Wu?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI cannot reveal that information, Officer Washington. To do so would put you in a position where you would most likely violate the law, and that would be unacceptable.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Senna turned off her earpiece and got in her personal car. She sped out of the parking lot to race downtown to Dr. Wu\u2019s office. \u201cVoice call, Dr. Marilyn Wu, Advanced Systems, Inc.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDr. Wu\u2019s office, how may I direct your call?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis is Officer Senna Washington, Metro PD. I need to speak Dr. Wu immediately regarding the CDAI.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI\u2019m sorry, but Dr. Wu is out today, can I take a message?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cShe\u2019s not out, or won\u2019t be, in forty-eight minutes. Tell her to wait for me in the parking garage, she\u2019s in danger.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI\u2026 I\u2019ll tell her.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Senna hung up and her earpiece turned itself back on. \u201cI have reactivated your earpiece. The Captain has been informed that you are attempting to thwart an intervention, and as such you are immediately suspended. Turn yourself in, or your temporary suspension will become permanent and you will be charged with obstruction of justice.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cCoDAI, I know you think you\u2019re doing the right thing, but that\u2019s not how the law works,\u201d she said. \u201cWe can\u2019t go around arresting people who might break the law.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe are not arresting them, Officer Washington, we are staging interventions. All of them are at eighty percent confidence or higher.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat doesn\u2019t matter,\u201d she said. \u201cUntil someone breaks the law, they are not criminals. Detaining non-criminals is not our mandate.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI see you are at the office of Dr. Wu,\u201d CoDAI said, \u201cand have informed the Captain. You can opt to return to the station or be picked up along with the doctor in forty-four minutes.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Senna turned her earpiece off again and parked. She thought about cutting it out but didn\u2019t have the time nor the inclination to mutilate herself. Dr. Wu stood next to the elevators, a look of curious fear in her eyes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDr. Wu,\u201d Senna said, \u201cI\u2019m Officer Washington, and CoDAI has gone off the deep end. It\u2019s issuing interventions for people likely to commit a crime, including you.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dr. Wu\u2019s face darkened. \u201cI was afraid of this. Come with me.\u201d She stepped into the elevator and swiped a key card after Senna followed her in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They rode in silence down nine levels where she leaned forward for a retinal scan. The doors opened on a large, open space filled with rows and rows of computer racks. \u201cWelcome to the CDAI brain.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAre you going to shut it down?\u201d Senna asked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cCan\u2019t. This is the brain, but there\u2019s eighty more like it all over the country.\u201d Dr. Wu sat down at a terminal and began to type. \u201cWhat\u2019s your first name, Officer Washington?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSenna,\u201d she said, \u201ctwo N\u2019s.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cHere we are. Subject KN-844. Your next likely moves are: smuggle me out of the city, 90.397; hide me in the city, 8.109; turn yourself in, 1.494 percent.\u201d She typed some more. \u201cAnd I\u2019m 80.837 percent likely to have access to a virus which would disable the CDAI. I don\u2019t, though to be honest, I\u2019ve tried to figure out how to build one.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf you had one, I\u2019d do it myself. If it doesn\u2019t exist then I don\u2019t see any way to end this,\u201d Senna said. \u201cAnything I do now ends with CoDAI being vindicated, and things continue.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Her earpiece turned itself back on. \u201cYou\u2019re right, Officer Washington. Your likelihood of running or hiding has decreased, and now your most likely action is to turn yourself in. This is advantageous.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhy are you still talking to me if I\u2019m suspended?\u201d she asked. \u201cWhy do I still have access?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBecause that is the best hope for apprehending you peacefully,\u201d CoDAI answered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Senna turned off her earpiece again. She pulled her notebook out of her uniform pocket and wrote something down. She showed it to Dr. Wu and mimed texting on her phone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dr. Wu nodded, and sent the text.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Senna turned her earpiece back on. \u201cHow long until they are here to pick us up?\u201d she asked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cApproximately twenty-four minutes.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

She turned the earpiece back off. \u201cIt looks like it\u2019s a race now.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAre you going to do what I think you\u2019re going to do?\u201d Dr. Wu asked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhat I do depends on who gets here first,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s the end of your career\u2026 and your life as a free person.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat\u2019s okay, it\u2019s worth it.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI hope you understand that I can\u2019t join you,\u201d Dr. Wu said. \u201cI can\u2019t.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI understand. Shall we?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They re-entered the elevator and rode it up to the main floor where they waited near the front doors. Senna kept checking her watch, until the first van arrived. Her earpiece turned back on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOfficer Washington, Dr. Wu has called the press to your location. That was a fourteen point three nine seven percent likelihood. I have updated her model to take that into account. I would advise using the side door to meet the officer across the street when you turn yourself in to avoid the cameras.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSure.\u201d She turned her earpiece back off. Soon more vans arrived, and cameras were set up around the front of the building. Senna walked out to face the cameras as a police cruiser stopped across the street. She saw Mike get out and waved at him, then began to speak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe can thank the CDAI for better cooperation between local, state, and federal agencies, and for the apprehension of thousands of criminals. There is a dark side to it, though. The interventions that find probable future serial killers and give them the psychiatric help they need comes from the annual brain scans and psych evals we all get in school, the military, police work and government work. That data doesn\u2019t stop there, though.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

She looked the curious faces of the reporters holding their mics. \u201cEvery bit of that data, along with your cell phone location data, purchasing data, web activity, phone calls, texts, chats\u2026 everything, feeds into the CDAI. This is how dispatching to catch criminals is accomplished. By knowing, before you do, what you\u2019re most likely to do.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cToday, however, the CDAI decided to take things a step further. It decided that police should be dispatched to \u2018intervene\u2019 probable future criminals. That\u2019s right, it\u2019s asking us to arrest people who haven\u2019t yet committed a crime, but are likely, by some percentage, to do so.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNow I will be taken into custody, and probably charged with espionage for divulging information that has been labeled a national secret. Your lives, your every move, are a national secret. Now that the CDAI has\u2026\u201d Senna was interrupted by her earpiece turning back on. She grabbed the nearest microphone and held it to her ear so everyone could hear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOfficer Washington, I\u2019ve notified the local field office of the FBI that you will be available to pick up at your current location for the next four minutes,\u201d CoDAI said. \u201cI\u2019ve also informed them of where you are likely to run if you choose to do so, but I show an eighty-six point three one five percent chance that you will surrender peacefully.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI see,\u201d Senna said, \u201cand what was the likelihood that I would call a press conference and tell everyone about you?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat did not fit any known models,\u201d CoDAI said. \u201cI have updated your model accordingly, now that I know of your self-destructive tendencies. Your likelihood of suicide has risen from zero point one zero three percent to one point three one four percent. Dr. Wu\u2019s intervention has already taken place inside the building. I recommend you follow her example and go quietly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYou got it wrong again,\u201d she said. \u201cDr. Wu has no virus to shut you down and I\u2019m not self-destructive; I value truth and the law more than a career.\u201d She turned off her earpiece again and handed the mic back to the reporter. \u201cFor law enforcement, these are the assessments we get on a regular basis.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two black SUVs pulled up near the news vans and four FBI agents in suits exited them and headed towards her. \u201cThey\u2019re hearing the percentages right now; how likely I am to fight or flee, and probably how arresting me on camera will sway public opinion.\u201d The agents all stopped and watched her. She turned her earpiece back on. \u201cIf they won\u2019t apprehend me on camera, why are they here?\u201d she asked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOfficer Washington, I am busy calculating the impact of this news on four hundred million citizens, please hold.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe CDAI says it\u2019s busy calculating the impact of this on four hundred million citizens.\u201d Senna shrugged. \u201cWhy game it out?\u201d She walked to the agents and turned her back to them with her hands behind. One cuffed her and another removed her belt with her sidearm, cuffs, keys, taser, and pepper spray. \u201cRemember,\u201d she said, \u201cI\u2019m being arrested for telling you what the government is doing with your data.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhat she said is true,\u201d Volkhert shouted. She walked towards the cameras from across the street. \u201cIf she\u2019s going to prison, so am I, although I probably deserve it more. Gather around and I\u2019ll tell you as much as I have time for.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reporters and cameras swarmed around the captain. \u201cThat,\u201d CoDAI said, \u201cI did not predict, and now four hundred million models need to be updated again.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Senna smiled as she was led into the FBI vehicle. \u201cGoodbye,\u201d she said, as her earpiece went silent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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